张军：人民币的远大愿景 Great Expectations for the Renminbi
The International Monetary Fund’s recent decision to add the Chinese renminbi to the basket of currencies that determine the value of its reserve asset, the Special Drawing Right, has captured headlines around the world. But the SDR itself has not exactly dominated discussions – much less transactions – since its creation in 1969. So does the decision really matter?
国际货币基金组织（IMF）近日决定将人民币纳入特别提款权（SDR）货币篮子，消息占领了世界各国媒体的头条，这项决定确定了人民币作为储备货币的价值。但是SDR自身并不是讨论的重点——自1969年设立至今，SDR并没有被使用过多少次。那么此项决定的意义究竟是什么？
In fact, given the SDR’s very limited role in the global economy, the move will have few concrete effects in the short term. In the longer term, however, the attention the decision has attracted could spur wider use of the SDR. More important, at least for now, the decision amounts to an endorsement by the IMF of the progress China has made toward renminbi internationalization, while reflecting – and reinforcing – China’s growing economic clout.
事实上，由于SDR在全球经济中扮演的角色十分有限，迈出的这一步在短期内具体成效并不大。从长期来看，IMF批准人民币入篮这一决定所引发的关注，将有利于扩大SDR的使用范围。更重要的是，至少在目前阶段，人民币在SDR中所占的权重和份额，证明了IMF认可中国为推动人民币国际化所做的努力，也同时反映和强化了中国经济与日俱增的影响力。
Since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, its GDP has surged from about CN￥20 trillion ($3.1 trillion) to CN￥60 trillion. In 2009 China became the world’s largest exporter. And last year, according to the IMF, China overtook the United States to become the world’s largest economy (in purchasing power parity terms). The acknowledgement by the IMF board, which represents all 188 of the Fund’s member countries, that the renminbi meets “all existing criteria” for inclusion in the SDR basket is another step forward along this path of progress.
自从2001年中国加入世界贸易组织（WTO）以来，中国的国内生产总值（GDP）已经从20万亿人民币（3.1万亿美元）跃升至60万亿人民币。2009年，中国成为世界最大出口国。根据IMF按照购买力平价(PPP)的估算结果，中国在去年已经超越美国，成为世界第一大经济体。IMF理事会代表188个成员国，确认人民币符合入篮SDR的“所有现行规则”，这是人民币国际化进程中的又一重大进展。
It is important to note, however, that meeting “all existing criteria” does not place the renminbi on par with, say, the US dollar – or, indeed, with any of the other SDR currencies (the euro, the British pound, or the Japanese yen) – in terms of international usage. On the contrary, despite China’s massive GDP and trade volume, the renminbi’s share in the global foreign-exchange market remains negligible. And the process of internationalizing the renminbi is far from complete.
需要重点注意的是，符合“所有现行规则“并不代表人民币在国际使用中与美元或者任何其他SDR货币（欧元、英镑、日元）处于相同地位。相反，尽管中国的GDP和贸易额数值庞大，但是人民币在全球外汇市场中的份额仍少之又少。距离完全实现人民币国际化，还有很长的路要走。
Given this, the IMF could easily have rejected the renminbi’s bid for inclusion in the SDR basket, as it did five years ago. But the IMF seemed eager (especially in the last few months) to bring China on board this time around. What brought about the Fund’s change of heart?
基于此，IMF完全可以像五年前一样轻易地拒绝人民币加入SDR篮子的要求，这一次却似乎急于将人民币纳入到SDR（特别在最近几个月）。是什么导致其态度的转变呢？
The explanation, I believe, lies largely in the August 11 devaluation of the renminbi, after a decade of appreciation. By moving away from the renminbi peg to the US dollar – an undoubtedly risky move – China demonstrated its willingness to allow market forces to establish the exchange rate in the long term.
究其原因，我认为，很大程度上是由于人民币在经历了十年的升值之后，于今年8月11号爆发的贬值事件。中国政府通过弱化人民币与美元的挂钩,这一无疑具有风险的举动，展示了其允许汇率长期由市场决定的意愿。
Of course, now that the renminbi has been accepted into the SDR basket, China must prove that it can manage dramatic currency depreciation effectively and continue to make progress toward internationalization. This will be no easy feat, especially at a time of slowing economic growth.
当然，目前人民币已经被批准加入SDR，中国必须证明自身能够有效控制人民币的大幅贬值，并且能够进一步推动人民币国际化，这在经济增长减速时期绝非易事。
A gradual depreciation would create expectations of further exchange-rate weakening, thereby fueling capital outflows and undermining companies’ willingness to use renminbi in exports and imports. The renminbi offshore market, which has strengthened considerably over the last few years, would lose value, forcing the People’s Bank of China to channel foreign-exchange reserves toward that market to offset the decline. Already, China’s reserves have declined considerably – by $87.2 billion last month alone.
人民币的逐步贬值可能造成未来汇率贬值的预期，并由此加剧资本外逃，同时削弱企业在进出口业务中使用人民币的潜在意愿。而在过去几年中已经取得相当发展成果的人民币离岸市场将失去价值，这迫使中国央行向人民币离岸市场投放外汇储备以应对人民币贬值。仅上月，中国的外汇储备已经下降了872亿美元。
Despite these challenges, China’s leaders anticipate that, in the longer term, the renminbi’s inclusion in the SDR basket will help to bring about the currency’s steady appreciation and, by serving as a kind of certification of credibility, support its continued internationalization. They are probably right. Nonetheless, what will really drive the renminbi’s continued rise will not be the SDR (though it will help), but China’s own long-term economic performance. Indeed, as Arvind Subramanian has argued, China’s share of global GDP and trade is what makes the renminbi likely to become a global reserve currency.
尽管存在这些挑战，但是中国领导层表示，人民币加入SDR长期而言将有助于货币的稳定升值，并且作为一种信用凭证来保持人民币国际化的进展。他们也许是对的。尽管如此，未来驱动人民币持续升值的并不是SDR因素（虽然SDR的确有帮助），而是中国自身的长期经济表现。事实上，正如Arvind Subramanian所说，中国的GDP和贸易在全球的比重决定了人民币是否有可能成为全球储备货币。
The question is when. According to Subramanian, it could occur as early as 2020. Chinese researchers are somewhat less optimistic. Five years ago, Pan Yingli of Shanghai Jiao Tong University projected that, without accounting for other currencies’ incumbency advantage, the renminbi’s share of foreign-exchange reserves worldwide could reach 26% by 2025 (about the current level of the euro). Accounting for the incumbency advantage, the share falls to 10%. But even at that level, the renminbi could be the world’s third reserve currency, after the dollar and the euro, by 2030.
问题是人民币何时会成为全球储备货币？据Subramanian认为，中国最早将在2020年达成这一目标。中国的研究者对此多少有些不太乐观。五年以前，上海交通大学的潘英丽教授认为，如果不考虑其他货币的在位者优势，人民币占全世界外汇储备的比例将有可能在2025年达到26%，相当于现在欧元的地位。如果考虑在位者优势，比例将降为10%。即便如此，人民币也将在2030年成为继美元和欧元之后的世界第三大储备货币。
In short, the inclusion of the renminbi in the SDR basket does matter, and not just symbolically. By demonstrating its confidence in the renminbi’s continued rise, the IMF has reinforced global expectations of – and lent implicit support to – the renminbi’s progress toward internationalization. Whatever challenges China faces, its steady march to the forefront of the global economy is set to continue.
简而言之，人民币加入SDR不单是象征性的，更具有实际意义。通过证明其对人民币持续升值的信心，IMF加强了世界对于人民币国际化进程的预期并在某种程度上支持了人民币国际化。无论面临什么挑战，中国都将在迈向世界经济强国的道路上努力地稳步前行。
*注：Arvind Subramanian 为作者好友、彼得森国际经济研究所研究员
英文原文Great Expectations for the Renminbi发表于Project Syndiacate
中文翻译|姚思文、游彤煦 翻译指导|郑霁光博士、夏梦
参考网址： mp.weixin.qq.com/s
张军|复旦发展研究院副院长
复旦大学经济学院院长
复旦大学中国经济研究中心主任